摘要：《周易》古经原为卜筮之书，孔子提出观其德义、后其祝卜的思想后，从德义视角出发的经学《周易》遂成为儒家学者研究之正统。继承孔子思想的经学《周易》为《易》学之正本，《周易》古本的卜筮为《易》学之源头。

经学《周易》在成立之初就与数术《周易》分道扬镳，泾渭分明，互不相属且各有传承。经学《周易》不废占筮，以之为研《易》四圣道之一。其卜筮是一种以德义为着眼点的哲学化的卜筮，而非原初的功利性占问吉凶的数卜巫术思维的卜筮。《易传》为卜筮之道开辟了新的进路，以卜筮功用在于君子之进德修业，其损益吉凶在于与民同患，已与原初先民所追求的个体的趋吉避凶路数“同涂殊归”。无论是经学《周易》还是术数《周易》，都以卜筮的有效性为基本前提，这是和其历史时期的科技水平相一致的。

在现代出土文献中，“数字卦”、“马王堆帛书《周易》”、“王家台秦简《归藏》”、“阜阳汉简《周易》”、清华简《筮法》等极大扩展了学界对早期《周易》文本与筮法发展的认识。对卜筮的明确认识与分析将有助于厘清思想，全面客观评价中华文化的精华与糟粕。不区分《周易》的人文与巫术而一概视之为中华文化之本，既会导致对传统文化的误解，也易误导现今文化的发展方向。站在正本清源的立场对《周易》筮法进行系统深入的考察与分析正是本文的主旨思想。

当前社会上江湖术士宣扬的《周易》预测学是以纳甲筮法及梅花易数为本的，这两种筮法一方面片面关心个人利益，注重趋吉避凶，缺乏进德修业及吉凶与民同患的哲理思想，无助于个人思想境界的提升；另一方面无视人的主观能动性，强调有神论与宿命论，以五行生克变化来附会事物发展规律。如果只钻研大衍筮法、纳甲筮法或梅花易数而不对《周易》筮法变迁及儒家占筮观的发展进行研究，很容易误解《易传》以占筮为四圣道之一的深刻内涵。

在文章结构方面，本文由周易筮法的起源与发展、儒家对占筮功用的反思、筮法结构与预测可靠性分析、筮法的心理学价值与思考四方面的议题构成。第一部分“周易筮法的起源与发展”为第一章，结合出土易学文献来讨论分析《周易》古经六爻卦与卦辞的成型。第二部分“儒家对占筮功用的反思”由“占筮到德义的视域转换”及“儒家视野下的占筮观”两章构成，这两章从占筮主体的视角变换来看待儒家思想在占筮认识上的突破，明辨《周易》之精华与糟粕。第三部分具体讨论大衍筮法、纳甲筮法与梅花易数，分析这三种筮法的象数理论背景及其筮法结构，并结合现代科学理论检测标准来判断其预测的可行性。第四部分从心理学角度上来探讨当今社会中周易筮法的价值，并进而讨论如何看待《周易》的占筮功能。

关键词：周易  占筮  大衍筮法  纳甲筮法  梅花易数

Abstract: The ancient Zhouyi(the Book of Changes) edition was for divination. Based on the sayings of Confucius about placing moral in the front of divination, the Jingxue (classic) Zhouyi edition from a moral standpoint had been becoming the new orthodoxy of Confucian research field. The Jingxue Zhouyi edition with the succession of Confucius became the classics of study of Zhouyi as the ancient Zhouyi edition was the sources of study of Zhouyi. Jingxue Zhouyi and Shushu (fortune and alchemy) Zhouyi represent opposite poles on how to regard Zhouyi, and they belong to two different transmission systems.

Divination is one of the four holy study methods in Jingxue Zhouyi field. This divination method is a philosophic moral one and differs from the original utilitarian way. Yizhuan (Commentaries on the Changes, the Ten Wings) puts divination in a new application for the gentleman's moral practice. The good or ill luck of this kind of divination results from one's social support rather than his personal incurrences. Both Jinxue Zhouyi and Shushu Zhouyi base on the validity of divination, and which keeps the step of the science level of that time.

Those unearthed documents, digital hexagrams, Zhouyi of Mawangdui silk manuscripts, Guizang of Wangjiatai Qing bamboo slips, Zhouyi of Fuyang Han bamboo slips and Shifa of Tsinghua bamboo slips, expand the academic studies of early Zhouyi text and the development of divination methods. The clear understanding and analysis on divination are helpful for evaluating the essence and the dross of Chinese culture objectively. Treating the humanities and witchcraft of Zhouyi as roots of Chinese culture leads to both misunderstandings about our traditional culture and wrong way for the development of current culture. The aim of this paper focuses on researching Zhouyi divination in the viewpoint of overhaul quite entirely and deeply.

The so-called Zhouyi prognostics which advocated by those wizards roots in Naja divination and Meihua Yi. On one side, Najia divination and Meihua Yi take care for personal gain at the expense of philosophical thoughts about moral practice and sharing joys and sorrows with people. On the other side, they emphasize theism and fatalism, ignore activeness and explain the law of development by five elements. In case one studys Dayan divination, Najia divination and Meihua Yi only, ignores the evolution of Zhouyi divination and the Confucian view of divination, then he or she will misunderstand why divination can be one of the four holy study methods in Jingxue Zhouyi field.

This paper consists of four topics, which are the evolution and of Zhouyi divination method, the Confucian refection about divination's application, the analysis on divination's framework and practicability, and the psychological value of divination. Topic one is also chapter one and focuses on how six-yao hexagrams occurred and how their meanings settled. Topic two consists of chapter two "the viewpoint changed from divination to moral" and chapter three "the Confucian view of divination". These two chapters discuss the Confucian breakthrough on the understanding of divination, and then analysis the essence and the dross of Zhouyi objectively. Topic three analyses the image-numerology system background and frameworks of Dayan divination, Najia divination and Meihua Yi concretely. Their practicability can be judged through joining modern scientific theory testing standards. Topic four discusses the value of Zhouyi divination from a psychological point of view, and sparks off a change in the way we think about Zhouyi divination capability.

Key Words: Zhouyi   Divination   Dayan Divination   Najia Divination   Meihua Yi

导师：汤一介教授、李中华教授